Experts expect AI to cut 10 million US jobs by 2050, but boost GDP by 4%

Experts from different fields agree that AI will significantly advance by 2030. They predict this will lead to a 4% annual GDP growth and a 7% drop in the US labor force participation rate by 2050. This means about 10 million jobs will be lost due to AI, even as the economy grows faster.

For years, economists have debated whether AI will create more jobs than it destroys, or if it will mostly boost productivity without widespread job loss. This paper shows that experts now largely agree on a future where AI both accelerates economic growth and significantly reduces the number of people working. This shift in expert consensus will likely shape how governments and businesses plan for the future of work and economic policy.